Crypto is all about cycle.

The crypto market is highly cyclical, with each cycle becoming more so. While the long-term upward trend of BTC remains, the diminishing risk-reward profile with each cycle means that timing the market becomes increasingly crucial. The fund anticipates that the speculative nature of BTC will persist, maintaining high levels of volatility. Therefore, we believe a market-timing based long/short strategy will outperform a simple buy-and-hold strategy in the future.

That's why we launched Phoenix Capital.

Our fund strategically adjusts net long and net short exposure to the crypto market based on a unique market timing model that centers on market positioning analysis. By focusing on both upward and downward trends, the fund seeks to generate profits across various market conditions, with majority of its risk is allocated to BTC and ETH.

Crypto cycles are driven by unique factors and themes that vary with each iteration. Instead of predicting these themes, our fund emphasizes analyzing the positioning of key market participants, including crypto funds, retail investors, miners, and traditional finance entities. We recognize that the crypto market can be irrational—whether driven by macroeconomic factors, regulatory changes, technological advancements, or consumer adoption, the catalyst for a bull market is often secondary.

What truly drives the market is the liquidity and capital available to these participants. When investors have ample dry powder—capital waiting to be deployed—markets are more likely to find a reason to surge, regardless of the specific catalyst. Conversely, when investors are heavily positioned, with capital already committed, the market becomes vulnerable to corrections or downturns, even in the face of positive news.

We believe that this focus on positioning, rather than merely attempting to predict thematic drivers, offers the most robust framework for anticipating and responding to the complex dynamics of crypto market cycles.

We aim to deliver consistent, risk-adjusted returns by concentrating on market positioning and remaining adaptable to the cyclical and speculative nature of the cryptocurrency market.